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2 Aug 2026·12 min read
ResearchA reusable workflow for converting geopolitical events into dated, falsifiable market mechanisms using evidence boundaries, actor ledgers, causal arrows, rival explanations and update rules.
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ResearchTwelve forecasts and a causal framework for how AI, energy infrastructure and modern mercantilism could reshape markets and national power.
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ResearchAn asset-manager reconstruction of how the US–Iran conflict moved through war-risk insurance, tanker availability, Gulf exports, refinery constraints, product cracks and crude volatility.
1 Aug 2026·16 min read