3 published articles.
A reusable workflow for converting geopolitical events into dated, falsifiable market mechanisms using evidence boundaries, actor ledgers, causal arrows, rival explanations and update rules.
Twelve forecasts and a causal framework for how AI, energy infrastructure and modern mercantilism could reshape markets and national power.
An asset-manager reconstruction of how the US–Iran conflict moved through war-risk insurance, tanker availability, Gulf exports, refinery constraints, product cracks and crude volatility.